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22 June 2025 SIGMA Brief

SIGMA Watch Group
13 min read
SIGMA

SIGMA Brief – (June 15 2025 - June 22 2025)

Report Date: June 22, 2025

Distribution: SIGMA Watch Group

Version: v1.0

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In the last week, a number of continuously worrying key global “flashpoints” worsened. The Iran-Israel conflict became significantly worse - with direct Iranian missile attacks (including first reported use of scorched-earth cluster munitions and warnings about the nuclear facility security) and direct U.S. involvement in Iranian strikes on Israeli nuclear sites. Ukraine continues to grind and pound Russians while large scale deep-strikes from Kyiv continue now with new EU sanctions and Putin in firm conditions of peace for Ukraine. At the same, China seems have steadily increased military pressure on Taiwan using more large scale air and naval forces with more median line incursions, and North Korea continues to make provocative actions seemingly to show alternative strength with signs they deepening military-technical cooperation with Russia including drone production. At least collectively, these conflicts in the new Middle East, Eastern Europe, and new East Asia are showing the increasingly interconnected and precarious global security environment.

SCOPE & OBJECTIVES

This brief covers strategic developments from June 15 to June 22, 2025. It aims to synthesize high-impact geopolitical activity, provide structured regional assessments, identify interconnected threat patterns, and offer probabilistic forecasts for the short- to medium-term.

METHODOLOGY

Sources include open-source intelligence (OSINT) feeds, satellite imagery analysis, military and government statements, reputable media outlets (e.g., ISW, Reuters, GeoConfirmed), and aggregated threat intelligence reports. Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs), ARES actor profiling, and probabilistic forecasting frameworks (based on Superforecasting) were applied.

Disclaimer: This report is based entirely on publicly available sources. It reflects the author’s analytical judgment and does not represent official views of any government or institution. All assessments are subject to revision as new information emerges.

REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE OVERVIEW & ASSESSMENT

Iran Update: Iran has increased its direct missile strikes on Israel for the remainder of the week. One of those missiles hit Beersheba. There are reports of 5 to 10 missiles that were fired on Beersheba, of which one was determined to have struck in its entirety without interception, ringing great structural damage and injury upon the local area. Iran claims to have targeted an Israeli military intelligence infrastructure and a defensive area in Ramat Gan, Tel Aviv. It is reported that Iran for the first time in this conflict has lost missiles equipped with a cluster munitions warhead, which sprinkles submunitions once over central Israel (which includes a strike on Azor). There have been positive U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear assets (for example Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan, Arak), with U.S. confirmation and fabrication by both the U.S. side and Iranian side. Russian foreign program ‘embassy’ concerns have dominated all aspects of the agency agenda in 2023. Rafael Grossi had also previously expressed strong/serious concerns about the radiological consequences of further operations against operational nuclear power plants based in Iran, particularly at Bushehr. All of the foregoing assessments must be relatd to the fact that Iran will hold at least some enriched uranium even after strikes. Ayatollah Khamenei has recently warned the U.S. about a military response. He implied any military retaliation against the U.S. would warrant a renewed use of “far greater force”. To Moscow, Iran’s Foreign Minister has met with a variety of European officials and diplomats and his status remain bound to Moscow with Putin. As Iran anchors after U.S. strikes against Khamenei reasons violate the U.S. Charter. Totaling about 585 Iranians and 24 Israelis had been reported killed since the violence began on June 13 (2003). China and the UK have initiated an evacuation from Iran of citizens/staff. Iran executed another Iranian man who had been charged for being for an agent with the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. Assessment: Iran has heightened its strategic approach and mindset through its missile strikes on Israeli soil including the unprecedented use of cluster munitions. This also represents a change in the mode of punishment to somewhat more aggressive and more symbolic action. Iran’s leaders (Supreme Leader and IRGC command) are engaged in a balancing act between visible retaliation and diplomacy, executing alleged spies while also engaging various European and Russian officials. The strikes on Israeli cities and talk about the safety of nuclear facilities are both attempts to deter further escalation from the West. The likely path ahead will include a combination of hybrid retaliation through cyber, proxy, and direct retaliation. We predict a likely front from Hezbollah could materialize within 7 days (60% likelihood).

Israel Update: On June 13, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” a massive military campaign that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, military camps, command centers, and important locations throughout Iran. The IAF has hit Iranian targets hundreds of times. Iron Dome has been tested, however its complete efficacy against sophisticated or high-volume Iranian missiles is called into question by the unintercepted Beersheba strike and reports of strikes on military intelligence centers. In cooperation with Israel, U.S. forces have launched “extremely successful” attacks using Tomahawk missiles, GBU-57 bunker-busters, and B-2 bombers on three Iranian nuclear sites. In addition to threatening harsh reprisal for attacks on American interests, President Trump has called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and offered to broker a settlement. London, Paris, and Berlin called on Iran to stop its destabilizing activities. The UN Chief urged immediate diplomacy. Israel is preparing for potential retaliatory strikes by Iran or its proxies, with increased security measures. Assessment: Israel keeps up Operation Rising Lion, carrying out big strikes all over Iran with the U.S.’s help. Its goal is to hurt Iran’s nuclear set-up and key control. People are now asking if Israel’s missile guard is any good after Iran hit Beersheba. The U.S. using B-2 bombers and big bombs shows they are really serious—it’s now more than just stopping threats, but also to hinder. Israel is set to face more hits back and shows they are tough through their actions and talk. Forecast: More strikes aiming at key spots and top IRGC people are likely soon, in 3-5 days (65%).

Russia Update: Russia keeps on fighting in Ukraine, slowly moving forward, mainly in the east. Ukrainian drones are hitting targets farther in Russia, damaging rail ways and making Russia move its planes. Even though Putin says Russia wants to end the fight in Ukraine “ASAP,” he sets terms (stop Ukraine’s army build-up, no more Western weapons) that show he’s not ready to give in yet. He liked Trump’s peace efforts. Putin also offered to help solve the Israel-Iran issues, meeting with Iran’s top diplomat in Moscow. Ukraine says there are 700,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine, with 52,000 more close to Kursk and Belgorod. Russia keeps losing many soldiers, with the death toll going up each year of the war (ISW). The EU has set new rules to hurt Russia’s money, including stopping new deals for Russian gas. Assessment: Russia is still very much into what’s going on in Ukraine, but also uses the crisis in the Middle East to show itself as a big world player. Putin has said he will help sort out the fight between Iran and Israel, all while his army keeps fighting in Donbas and hitting Ukraine’s stuff. He says two things at once: keep pushing Ukraine but also act like Moscow is a calm force when the West is too bold. As Ukraine hits back deep into Russia, the Russian army is spread too thin. Forecast: No big win in Ukraine soon, but Russia will talk more about how it’s trying to help as a middle man in the Israel - Iran conflict.

Ukraine Update: Ukraine keeps up bold drone hits far into Russia, hitting key airbases and supply spots. Ukrainian troops took back Andriivka in Sumy area and hold lines along the 1,000km front. Ukraine is starting to open up lithium fields to money as part of a U.S. minerals deal and aims to make lots of its Sapsan missiles. Kyiv has gone through bad overnight hits from Russian missiles and drones, with one hit taking 28 lives. Ukraine got back bodies of 1,200 lost soldiers from Russia as part of a deal. Assessment: Ukraine keeps hitting hard with drone strikes into Russia and making small wins at the front. Zelenskyy’s lead is boosting its tech edge, pushing ahead with missile making and U.S. mineral deals. Taking back land in Sumy and getting soldiers’ bodies back shows a focus on keeping spirits up and strength at home. Ukraine’s plan is now less about big counter-offensives and more on sharp, wearing tactics and keeping global help. Forecast: A big hit on a Russian supply or airbase target is likely soon, in about 5–10 days (70%).

China Update: Taiwan saw a high count of Chinese military planes (74 planes, 61 over the mid line) and ships close by, right after a UK ship passed through the Strait. The Shandong and Liaoning were doing things at the same time. Despite the mess in the Middle East, China’s push on Taiwan hasn’t stopped. China said it was very upset by U.S. hits on Iran, claiming they broke the UN rules. It seems to get closer to Russia and Iran to fight U.S. power. The trade tie between the US and China still suffers from fees, with the US warning about Huawei AI chips. Assessment: China uses the West’s lack of attention to push harder on Taiwan. The 61 planes crossing the line and the ship moves near Taiwan are clear tests. At the same time, China is joining words with Iran and Russia, calling out the U.S. moves in the Middle East as UN breaks. The PLA is pushing limits in ways meant to look normal but are bold, to avoid a real fight. Forecast: A fake blockade, big ship drill, or cyber attack on Taiwan could happen soon, in about 7–14 days (55% chance).

North Korea Update: North Korea fired approximately 10 artillery shells from a multiple rocket launcher towards the Yellow Sea following trilateral air drills by the U.S., ROK, and Japan. Russia has reportedly agreed to help North Korea establish sites for manufacturing Shahed drones on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has also dispatched significant personnel (up to 12,000 troops, with 1,000 sappers and 5,000 construction workers) to Russia since last October to aid the war effort in Ukraine (e.g., Kursk region). SIPRI estimates North Korea possesses about 50 assembled nuclear warheads. Concerns persist regarding “entanglement” tactics (dual-use missiles) and the pursuit of multiple warhead capabilities. The previously damaged 5,000-ton destroyer has been successfully relaunched after repairs. North Korea slammed Israel’s attack on Iran as a “hideous act” and aligned its rhetoric with Russia and Iran against Western actions. Assessment: North Korea continues to provoke along its western maritime boundary while accelerating its military-technical relationship with Russia. The revelation of Shahed drone manufacturing agreements and thousands of North Korean personnel in Russian territory signals a deeper integration of wartime logistics. Domestically, North Korea has relaunched its naval assets and maintained inflammatory rhetoric supporting Iran and Russia. These moves suggest a strategic aim to remain relevant and leverage the situation for material gain. Forecast: Expect a missile test or escalatory statement within the next week, aimed at signaling deterrent solidarity with its regional allies (50–60%).

ARES DOSSIER HIGHLIGHTS

Entity: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

  • Capability: Significant missile forces, Quds Force paramilitary assets, cyber units
  • Intent: Retaliate against Israeli and U.S. actions; preserve regime stability
  • Posture: Elevated alert; coordinating proxy threats regionally
  • Behavior: Launching direct and asymmetric attacks
  • Assessment: IRGC remains the primary conduit of Iran’s regional power projection and the main escalatory actor in the ongoing conflict.

Entity: People’s Liberation Army (PLA)

  • Capability: Blue-water navy, dual-carrier ops, long-range missile platforms
  • Intent: Pressure Taiwan; signal strength amid Middle East distraction
  • Posture: Operationally aggressive near Taiwan Strait
  • Behavior: Median-line crossings, airspace incursions
  • Assessment: PLA is testing regional deterrence limits and probing U.S. allied coordination in East Asia.

MARKET & GEO-ECONOMIC INTEL

Main Indexes:

  • S&P 500: 4,197 (↓1.3%)
  • Nasdaq: 13,150 (↓2.1%)
  • Brent Crude: $94.10/barrel (↑7.2%)

Watchlist Notes:

  • RTX (Raytheon): ↑4.5% – Missile demand spike amid Iran-Israel war
  • LMT (Lockheed): ↑3.8% – Anticipated U.S. arms sales to Taiwan/Israel
  • SHEL (Shell): ↑2.2% – Oil price surge benefiting energy giants

CROSS-REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE THREADS

Despite their unique origins, the conflicts in Iran-Israel, Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, and Korea exhibit striking linkages and parallel behaviors. Adversarial states in these flashpoints are demonstrably learning from each other, employing similar innovative, asymmetric tactics like deep strikes to hit larger foes and sow vulnerability. Beyond tactical mirroring, explicit strategic alignments are evident: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are increasingly coordinating to counter U.S. influence. This includes Russia’s efforts to mediate in the Middle East, and unified diplomatic and information operations from Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang condemning U.S. allies and framing Western actions as aggressive across all theaters. Doctrinally, these four adversaries share a military posture emphasizing missiles for deterrence and coercion, believing saturation tactics can overwhelm advanced defenses. A convergent trend is their broad use of unmanned systems and standoff weapons, pioneering new tactics. Fundamentally, these flashpoints are strategically interlinked; actions in one arena trigger ripple effects, creating a precarious balance where changes in pressure on one front can prompt shifts in behavior elsewhere, thus tying these conflicts into a single, grand strategic chessboard, and heightening overall risk.

WHAT-IF SCENARIOS

  • If Iran escalates with a strike on a U.S. naval asset, full regional war becomes likely within 72 hours.
  • If China launches a blockade drill around Taiwan, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command may be forced into a forward posture, increasing risk of near-term incident.
  • If North Korean drones appear over South Korean airspace, U.S.–ROK combined responses may trigger a retaliatory cycle.

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS

Scenario Likelihood Confidence
Israeli third wave targeting Tehran metro 65% High
Iranian retaliation against U.S. assets 55% Medium
Taiwan Strait full naval blockade (30 days) 35% Medium
Russian breakthrough in Donbas (next 14 days) 25% Low

SKEY ASSUMPTIONS CHECK

  • Assumption: Iran has not yet authorized Hezbollah to fully mobilize. If false, Israel’s northern front could erupt within 24–48 hours.
  • Assumption: China is not coordinating military timing with Russia. If false, risk of concurrent conflicts multiplies.
  • Assumption: U.S. does not intend regime change in Iran. If incorrect, strategic signaling will shift toward total war.

CONCLUSION

Global security conditions have entered a period of acute instability, with multiple adversaries taking increasingly synchronized actions across key regions. Israel’s campaign in Iran, China’s military signaling near Taiwan, and North Korea’s alignment with Russian wartime logistics suggest we are entering a new phase of multipolar escalation. The SIGMA Watch Group recommends heightened monitoring of cross-theater coordination signals and continued tracking of vertical escalation ladders.

SOURCE APPENDIX

  1. ISW – Institute for the Study of War
  2. GeoConfirmed
  3. Reuters
  4. IAEA Statements – International Atomic Energy Agency
  5. SIPRI – Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  6. Times of Israel
  7. Times of India
  8. The War Zone (The Drive)
  9. Al Jazeera
  10. NK News
  11. Korea Times / Yonhap
  12. Korea JoongAng Daily
  13. Atlantic Council
  14. Geopolitical Futures
  15. United States Department of Defense (Defense.gov)
  16. Flashpoint
  17. Amnesty International
  18. National Security Journal
  19. Azat TV
  20. The Hawk
  21. Conflingo
  22. Yahoo News
  23. The Tribune
  24. Reddit r/worldnews
  25. Hankyoreh
  26. Other open-source intelligence as of June 20, 2025